An innovative approach to estimate infection by COVID-19

Abstract

Given that individuals in a certain population are different (among other things they have a different immune system), it is possible that some are infected with the known virus COVID-19 and are asymptomatic and therefore not diagnosed with the disease. Thus, estimates of the number of infected and dead with COVID-19 may not correspond to reality. This study seeks to indicate a procedure to estimate the number of individuals in the infected population that are asymptomatic (not diagnosed, but possible transmitters of the disease), based on the number of infected individuals (already diagnosed). We showed how with data (numbers of symptomatic, symptomatic in the hospital and deceased) on the evolution of the pandemic in five regions of mainland Portugal it is possible to estimate the number of asymptomatic and immune individuals in the population.