Optimizing CO2 Injection Under Geological Uncertainties in CCUS: A Lusitanian Basin Case Study

Abstract

This study, conducted within the PilotSTRATEGY project, explores the optimization of CO₂ injection under geological uncertainties in the Q4-TV1 prospect of the offshore Lusitanian Basin, Portugal. A static model integrating seismic and well data was coupled with dynamic simulations in the Big Loop framework, combining Bayesian optimization with uncertainty analysis. Geological risks, including intersecting faults and legacy wells, were evaluated to ensure safe containment and reservoir integrity. The integrated workflow identified an optimal injection strategy that minimizes leakage risks while ensuring stable plume behavior over the long term. The results demonstrate the value of combining Bayesian optimization and dynamic modelling to design secure and efficient CCUS injection strategies in geologically complex settings.