Cold and Heat waves: modelling mortality in Évora - Portugal

Abstract

In this work, models for discrete non-negative integer-valued time series, using as covariates daily maximum and minimum temperatures, are presented in order to model the number of deaths occurred in the district of Évora (Portugal). Two methodologies were applied to define heat and cold waves (one based on classical definition and other using temporal clustering processes) to identify critical time periods and to validate the model with a particular emphasis on these specific periods.