On the globalization of stock markets: An application of Vector Error Correction Model, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis to the G7 countries

Abstract

This paper analyzes stock market relationships among the G7 countries between 1973 and 2009 using three different approaches: (i) a linear approach based on cointegration, Vector Error Correction (VECM) and Granger Causality; (ii) a nonlinear approach based on Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient; and (iii) a nonlinear approach based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). While the cointegration tests are based on regression models and capture linearities in the data, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis capture nonlinear relationships in a non-parametric way. The framework of this paper is based on the notion of market integration and uses stock market correlations and linkages both in price levels and returns. The main results show that significant co-movements occur among most of the G7 countries over the period analyzed and that Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient actually seem to provide more information about the market relationships than the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality. However, unlike the latter, the direction of causality is difficult to distinguish in Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient. In this respect, the nonlinear Singular Spectrum Analysis technique displays several advantages, since it enabled us to capture nonlinear causality in both directions, while Granger Causality only captures causality in a linear way. The results also show that stock markets are closely linked both in terms of price levels and returns (as well as lagged returns) over the 36 years analyzed.