Taking individual heterogeneity in mortality risks into account in demographic studies of wild animal populations: development and use of statistical models.

Abstract

The Cormarck-Jolly-Seber model incorporating frailty implemented in WinBUGS, using the 9000 kittiwake’s dataset monitorized during 22 years, showed that the convergence is very low over computational view. We developed different kind of multistate model, considering independence/dependence between random effect of breeding and survival probability. The last part of the work was dedicated to model selection with Bayesian framework.