The ageing effect on European tourism demand: a short/medium term impacts scenarios

Abstract

This paper reflects about the impacts on short/medium term of aging effect on European tourism demand and provides a contribution to a recent McKercher (2023) call for adopting a more critical lens when examining differences among generations. Population aging challenges and constraints have been discussed mainly due to their impacts at the political, social, cultural and economic level. As reported by European Commission [EC] (2023), “ageing of the population is a long-term trend, which began several decades ago in Europe” (p.10). As underlined by EC on 1 January 2021, those aged 65+ represented 20.8% of the EU population but expected to attain 30,6% in 2050. Countries as Portugal, Spain and Italy are expected to present higher values than the European average. Nevertheless, the aging impact is not only registered in South Europe, and most relevant international tourism markets to Portugal, such as France will face this effect (European Commission, 2023). Considering recent research gaps on these aging effects on tourism, it is important to: relate the population structure of the most important European tourism markets in Portugal; suggest tourism demand scenarios supported by demographic projections;explore the attitudes of European tourists to go on holidays based on the Age-period-cohort theory.