High‑resolution species distribution modelling reveals spatio‑temporal variability of habitat suitability in a declining grassland bird

Abstract

Context Species distribution models (SDMs) may provide accurate predictions of species occurrence across space and time, being critical for effective con servation planning. Objectives Focusing on the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax), an endangered grassland bird, we aimed to: (i) characterise the drivers of the species distribution along its key phenological phases (winter, breeding, and post-breeding); and (ii) quantify spatio-temporal variation in habitat suitability across phenological phases and over the years 2005–2021. Methods Combining remotely sensed metrics at high temporal resolution (MODIS) with long-term (> 12 years) GPS telemetry data collected for 91 individuals at one of the species’ main strongholds within the Iberian Peninsula, we built SDMs (250 m resolution) for the species key phenological phases. Results The use of both dynamic and static pre dictors unveiled previously unknown ecological responses by little bustards, revealing a marked change in the spatial distribution of suitable habitat among phenological phases. Long-term habitat suita bility trends showed considerable fluctuations, mainly in the breeding and post-breeding phases. Overall, SDM projections into the past revealed that while the species’ winter and post-breeding habitats appar ently increased since 2005, suitable habitat during the species’ most critical phenological phase, breeding, apparently reduced in area over time. Conclusions Our findings show that matching remotely sensed data with GPS tracking data results in accurate habitat suitability predictions throughout the yearly cycle. Additionally, our findings stress the importance of quantifying habitat loss and its poten tial impact on little bustard decline over nearly 20 years. Spatio-temporal variations in habitat suitability are also identified in this work, which can help pri oritize conservation areas, particularly the breeding areas that have remained stable over time, as this is a key requirement for little bustard lek breeding system.