Improving the Knowledge on Seismogenic Sources in the Lower Tagus Valley for Seismic Hazard Purposes

Abstract

The Lower Tagus Valley, that includes the metropolitan area of Lisbon, has been struck by several earthquakes which produced significant material damage and loss of lives. Their exact location remains unknown. Our goal is to shed some light into the seismogenic sources in the area using seismic reflection and geological data. In areas with no seismic coverage, potential-field data interpretation was carried out. Seismicity was overlaid to the potential seismogenic structures and high-resolution data was acquired in order to confirm which structures have been active into the Quaternary. Three major fault-zones affecting the Neogene were identified: V. F. Xira, Samora-Alcochete and Pinhal Novo. For the first fault, strong evidences suggest it is active. The other two fault-zones and other structures previously unknown can be correlated with several epicentres. Empirical relationships between maximum moment magnitude and fault area indicate that MW > 6.5 earthquakes can be expected for the larger structures.