When economic uncertainty disturbs fertility levels.

Abstract

The idea that fertility reacts positively to economic prosperity and falls in times of crises is present in the literature on the evolution of fertility (e.g. Lee, 1990; Sobotka et al., 2011; Comolli, 2017). Periods of economic recession or stagnations are frequently followed by turn down moments on the number of births. Fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and reacts on the ups and downs of economic uncertainty, boosting the postponement and decreasing the quantum. Since 2010, Portugal has been harshly affected by the (1) economic crisis, (2) high unemployment rates and (3) negative consumer confidence index (CCI). Simultaneously, the country presented the lowest birth rates and fertility levels in the European Union since 2012 (Eurostat, 2015). Through an empirical approach, we explore the relationship between the number of childbirth, consumer confidence index, and unemployment rate by sex and for the 25 – 34 age group, within the period 2007-2017 (INE).