Risk-prone territories for spreading tuberculosis, temporal trends and their determinants in a high burden city from São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract

To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city.

An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality.