Modelling the heat transition

Abstract

The Dutch government is committed to reducing its dependence on fuel imports and promoting sustainable practices, which has led to plans to move away from gas-powered heating systems towards alternative heat sources such as district heating or electric heat pumps. In this heat transition, DHM provides advice and leadership for investment decisions, particularly at the municipal level. Key considerations include the transition costs, choice of heat commodity, and necessary infrastructure. This project explores three decision-making models that aim to minimize social costs in an objective manner: Monte Carlo simulations, energy hubs, and mathematical programs. The results of this study can be used as a starting point for further research to support a sustainable and cost-effective heat transition.