Predicting the Effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park in Protecting Vegetation Under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of protected areas. Species shift their ranges under climate change to track suitable climate, mainly shifting poleward and toward higher elevation. They often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Also, climate change may result in the loss of combinations of climatic conditions that are restricted to a given protected area. On the other hand, species with restricted occurrence might expand their distribution range as a result of climate change. In order to study the effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park, located in the center-eastern part of Portugal, Maxent modeling approach was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species—Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L., and Rhamnus lycioides L.—indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tagus International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2060 and 2080) and Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The variables most impacting the species distribution were the mean precipitation of the driest quarter, annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and slope. The results suggested some range expansion in the future for all three species in the studied scenarios. Those species and the vegetation where they occur will probably remain confined to center-eastern Portugal in the future, where they will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.